Could this be the year that the dream of waking up to a WHITE CHRISTMAS becomes a thing of the past for the majority of the country? A hopeful look at the first week of December gave us all a tease of what might have otherwise been a winter wonderland experience, with over 45% of America covered in snow, but AccuWeather long-range forecasting experts are saying this trend is coming to an end. AccuWeather Lead Long Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok had this to say:
The transition occurs because of the mild air moving into the Pacific side of the Rockies, which can quickly melt the snow at lower elevations. The areas that have a several-inch compact snow cover and a chilled-out temperature will have the best shot at maintaining their winter wonderland setup. Looking at the forecasts for the year 2025, the central and northern Rockies are virtually guaranteed locations for a white Christmas, and higher elevations ranging from Wyoming and Montana down into Utah and Colorado are sure to have a snow cover present. Even non mountainous areas look for a 40-75% probability of having snow cover present.
The lake effect snow areas in the downwind areas of the Great Lakes are also a strong possibility, as are the higher elevations within the Appalachian Mountains, particularly in the New England area, where intermittent surges of cold air in the weeks leading up to Christmas may help lock in the snow. The central and eastern US, on the other hand, are looking at a sharp warming trend before the holiday, with the snow that has fallen thus far being quickly erased. Pastelok said that the snow stretching from Texas/Oklahoma to Missouri, Tennessee, and Kentucky that was present the first week of December has “already long gone.” As of December 16, the 28% of the contiguous US that was in snow, according to NOAA, was a decrease.
However, there is always the possibility that things will change right up to the end with regards to the transformation that could bring the much-needed snowfall. A storm system will make its presence felt around December 23 and 25, which could bring fresh snow to the regions surrounding the Great Lakes and the interior of the Northeast. However, the track that the storm will follow will determine the regions that will receive blanket snowfall and the regions that could get rain instead, according to Pastelok. Areas north of Interstate 80 could see snowfall, while rain will likely Pour in regions below it.
This definition, as determined by the National Weather Service, needs at least an inch of snow on the ground at the local time of 7 am on December 25th. A trace does not qualify, but any amount of snow fall during the daytime can certainly help build a Merry atmosphere. In the past, about 38% of the Contiguous US has been found to qualify for this definition over the NOAA database of 21 years. The variation has been large – from a mere 17.6% in 2023 to 63% in 2009.
The long-term climate records from the NOAA 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals data set show which areas are most probable. Alaska, Minnesota, Maine, the Upper New York state line area, the Alleghenies of Pennsylvania, Idaho, the Alleghenies/ Rockies or Sierra Nevada mountain ranges, and the Rockies or Sierra Nevada mountain ranges are above 90%. The areas of the West Coast and Gulf Coast/Deep South are below a 10% probability. A lack of strong changes within the probabilistic areas indicates that warming is affecting these areas.
There are also some patterns in the climate that occur with the seasons. The La Niña this winter is a weak one, which usually means snow in the Northern Rockies and a warmer outlook for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. But, as weather forecaster explanation suggests, it is unpredictable weather, such as intrusions of arctic air and Madden-Julian Oscillation, which can influence a weak La Niña to mean a big snowfall.
The tradition of having a white Christmas has continued to fascinate, tracing back to images created in Bing Crosby’s 1942 role in “Holiday Inn” and subsequent “White Christmas.” The yearning in this classic song to “the ones I used to know” correlates with our annual December expectations. Regardless of whether snow or just flurries will be brought in with 2025, it matters little to science and to tradition.
