Could a slow-moving storm over the Caribbean Sea’s hottest waters strengthen into one of the season’s most dangerous hurricanes? Meteorologists are scrambling to find out as Tropical Storm Melissa moves towards possible hurricane force by Friday, with a wayward track that threatens to hit Haiti, Jamaica, or Cuba.
As of Wednesday evening, Melissa was churning about 300 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and crawling west-northwest at just 2 mph. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted, “Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial intensification forecast by this weekend.” But the storm’s track remains uncertain, with weak steering currents leaving forecasters weighing whether it will veer north toward Jamaica and Cuba or continue westward.
NOAA Hurricane Hunters are already traversing Melissa, collecting key information to sharpen intensity and track predictions. Carried out by specialized units of NOAA and the U.S. Air Force Reserve, such missions enable meteorologists to get wind speed, pressure, and storm configuration readings in real time—information that can translate to a difference of days or merely a handful of hours of preparation time for populations in its projected path.
It’s unlikely to weaken quickly even if it stalls. Southern Haiti, the Dominican Republic south, and eastern Jamaica may receive 5 to 10 inches of rain during the period up to Saturday, with locally much morethan that. AccuWeather meteorologists predicted that Haiti might get as much as 18 inches, with Jamaica as much as 12 inches. Even northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and west Jamaica will receive 2 to 4 inches. NHC warned that “significant flash flooding and landslides are possible,” particularly in mountainous areas.
Wind impacts would be destructive if Melissa strengthens as forecasted. Jamaica may get gusts of 80-100 mph late Thursday through early next week, while Haiti may get gusts of 40-60 mph. A hurricane watch covers southwestern Haiti, with a tropical storm watch for Jamaica. It was recommended by NHC that everyone should complete final life and property protection preparations by Thursday.
Forecaster are also monitoring the storm’s environment intensely. Melissa passes over extremely warm waters—surface temperatures ranging from 86 to 89 degrees, with warmth reaching hundreds of feet below. This means that it won’t stir up cooler waters to dissipate if it stalls. “I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say we will likely get a Category 5, and quite possibly one of the strongest storms ever recorded in the Atlantic,” posted Andy Hazelton, associate scientist at the University of Miami. Though not everyone agrees, some models indicate Melissa will reach major hurricane strength early next week.
Preparation is best for mitigating physical danger as well as emotional distress for citizens of the Caribbean. Specialists suggest finding a safe place to go, supplying food, water, and medicine, and planning routes for evacuation. The American Red Cross suggests being aware of where your local shelters are and making arrangements for early transport if possible. Advance planning can ease anxiety by replacing uncertainty with a clear course of action.
Mental health professionals note that storm preparation isn’t just about closing shutters or boarding windows, but preparing for emotional safety as well. Limiting exposure to graphic news coverage, staying in communication with family members or friends, and maintaining healthy routines will minimize stress. Involving children with a safe preparation task, like filling water tanks or gathering supplies, helps to give a sense of control, meaning, and calm, noted psychologist Alan E. Stewart.
NOAA’s 2025 hurricane season outlook had already forecasted a busier-than-average period, with 13 to 19 named storms, of which 10 or more hurricanes. Melissa was its 13th this hurricane season, which underscored that keen intensity this hurricane season. Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm further noted, “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
Although Melissa’s precise path will come more sharply into view in days ahead, meteorologists note that Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and northern Cuba must maintain a high state of alertness. With or without a direct hit, torrential rain, heavy winds, and potential storm surges will combine to create life-threatening situations amongst populations that are at risk.
