When a winter storm warning pops up on a phone screen, is the trip still necessary? From areas around the Great Lakes and Northeast, winter watches have included too much snow and the usual litany of hazards: rapidly changing visibilities, heavy snow drifts, and wind that can make even ordinary snowfall hazardous. In areas of upstate New York, lake-effect snow bands have been predicted to bring 2 to 4 feet of snowfall, with the highest rates of snowfall of 4 inches an hour expected in the Tug Hill area. In other areas, other counties are also at risk for more heavy snowfall, while Michigan is at risk for new snowfall and wind gusts of 40 mph that can approach near-blizzard conditions.
These are statistics that can seem abstract until they encounter a road, a driveway, or a front door that won’t open. As far as helping families understand the warnings, the only difference is in the interpretation of the headline, and not in the name of the storm. According to the National Weather Service, a Winter Storm Watch is the potential for significant winter weather in the next 48 hours, while a warning indicates that dangerous conditions are occurring or imminent. Advisories are generally issued for lower amounts of snow that are still potentially hazardous to daily activities, and according to the same NWS, a Winter Weather Advisory can be issued for “significant inconvenience” amounts of snow, even if it doesn’t meet the criteria for a warning.
The amount of snowfall is only one piece of the equation. Lake-effect storms can create corridors where a certain area receives an unbelievable amount of snow, while another area receives much less, which is why local information becomes more important than a forecast. In the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, the local meteorologists have also realized that the bigger picture of the lake-effect storms might be one of lower visibility instead of higher snowfall, a reminder that a lower snowfall forecast does not mean a lower level of threat if the wind and blowing snow become the bigger factors.
Cold then becomes a concern for health and safety in itself, especially when the wind chill values become a dangerous level. In some parts of the Upper Peninsula, the forecast has indicated that there will be an entry of arctic air late in the week that can maintain temperatures at or below zero and reduce the wind chill values to negative numbers. The region has made it clear that it is necessary to take common-sense precautions that become vital in extreme cold.
Traveling is usually the point of no return for many families. As NWS suggests for winter driving, Each year, more than 5,000 people are killed in weather-related vehicle crashes, along with hundreds of thousands of injuries. This is why meteorologists and safety experts always go back to the basics that are simple to forget when the agenda seems set in stone: charging a cell phone, having a shovel and light in the car, filling up the gas tank, and letting someone know the route and estimated time of arrival. Some states also recommend dialing 511 for road conditions before leaving, a small detail that can make all the difference between a trip and a closure or whiteout.
In areas where there is a strong lake effect, the choice might simply become one of following the warning as a guide to strip down decisions. Group errands, communicate expectations early with work and school contacts, and plan for slower snow removal than usual. A forecast in feet is less a novelty than a guide to strip down plans to the basics.
