‘Please prepare and take precautions in the event of power outages, pipe bursts, road closures, airport delays, flight cancellations, and freezing temperatures,’ Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said in a statement.
This warning encapsulates the reality of a big Southern winter storm situation, where snow is a rarity but ice is a possibility, and things can go from bad to worse in a short span of time. The level of confidence in the forecast is based on a big storm forming in the Southwest, which would draw Gulf moisture northward and meet Arctic air moving from the southern Plains to the South and eventually to the East Coast.
To be early, the initial wave of wintry weather is expected to occur by Friday afternoon and evening from Kansas into Oklahoma and North Texas, then into Arkansas and beyond. The most dangerous period for travel appears to be Saturday and Saturday night, when the heaviest icing and snowfall are expected to combine. The most problematic conditions for travel are often expected in the South when the type of precipitation changes from street to street, with cold rain in one neighborhood and a layer of freezing rain in another.
The larger picture for wellbeing has to do with what occurs after the initial event of frozen precipitation occurs. The ice that forms on tree limbs and lines does not require a lot of accumulation to be a problem; two-tenths of an inch to a half inch of ice accumulation is sufficient to cause a breach in tree limbs, causing a loss of utilities. With the cold air mass following close behind the storm system, dwellings can remain below freezing for an extended period of time, increasing a short-lived issue into a longer-term concern for wellbeing.
However, travel disruptions are not confined to interstates. Several major airports in the South are likely to be in the path of the storm. Moreover, some airports have limited de-icing facilities compared to airports in the North. A ripple effect of cancellations can quickly build when planes and crews are out of position, making it hard to re-route even when the weather clears. Airlines have already issued warnings and, in many instances, waived fees for re-routing passengers.
State and local efforts emphasize the importance of ice in areas where it is not as frequently encountered. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott announced that he was mobilizing emergency response resources in advance of the storm because the freezing rain, sleet, and snow could produce hazardous travel conditions through the weekend and result in impacts to infrastructure. Other areas of the region will focus on road pre-treatment, warming center preparation, and utility coordination as temperatures decrease and the storm slows.
Cold exposure is still a parallel threat. The same pattern that is driving the storm is also responsible for the polar vortex’s excursion into the eastern half of the U.S., causing wind chills to plummet. In this type of cold, frostbite can set in rapidly on skin that is exposed, and even simple chores such as clearing steps, checking on a neighbor, or moving a generator outside become more hazardous than they would on a typical Southern winter day.
By Sunday, the system is expected to hit the East Coast, where the possibility of heavier snow may become the big concern in some metropolitan areas. However, in the South, the result that will most quickly change lives is the combination of ice and the lingering cold that will keep roads slick, downed trees blocking roads, and power restoration efforts delayed by conditions that won’t budge.
